Weekly Links

Some of the more interesting articles I have seen this week.

Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture: QOTD “The Banks Run the Place”
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/qotd-the-banks-run-the-place/
A Couple Democratic congressmen telling it like it is.

Mish Shedlock, Global Economic Trend Analysis: Overly Optimistic Consensus Plays Greater Fools Game Again
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/overly-optimistic-consensus-plays.html
Mish looking at analysis of the stock market suggesting that the S&P 500 is perhaps, overvalued. My only question is how long until stocks will be priced based on valuation rather than the amount of money made available to banks by the Fed??? A good read.

The NY Times: Shoppers Shifting Priorities, An Interactive Graphic
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/10/03/business/metrics-retail-sales.html
This was found at The Big Picture. It offers a quick visual representation of retail trends over the past six years. In other words, how are shoppers spending there money, or not.

Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters: The Questions are Endless, 321Gold http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell100909.html
What happens when the fed prints an endless supply of dollars? This is one perspective.

Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture: A composite chart combining 29 secular bear markets.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/secular-bear-markets.png

Wall Street Journal: Fed Frets About Commercial Real Estate
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125487629495569591.html#articleTabs%3Darticle
Banks are not taking losses on commercial real estate loans. Is this a repeat of the debacle the housing crisis caused on financial institutions, or worse? How much will the Fed print to keep the banks solvent once these losses suck more liquidity from the system? Green shoots, my ass. The only green shoots are the two trillion green backs that have been printed in the last year.

ETF Corner: Hope Running Wild
http://www.etf-corner.com/markets/2009/10/spy-hope-running-wild-.html
Great chart and commentary on why the recent strength in U.S Stocks fits the profile of a bear market rally. There are many other reasons. The question in my mind is will the Fed be able to print enough dollars to continue to provide liquidity to fuel a rise in stocks, or will economic forces (a weary consumer, weak job market, decreasing lending by banks to consumers and small businesses, collapse in the value of banks commercial real estate portfolios, rise on commodity prices like oil etc…) begin to take over.

Cornell University Video Series: Advice for President Obama, An Economics Panel Discussion
http://www.cornell.edu/video/details.cfm?vidID=410&display=preferences