Friday, January 8, 2010

Where Are We Headed Part Deux

Hey Guys,



Just thought I'd pass this quick read along (link below) as it sums up my views in easier to understand language. I know the urge to join the party is strong, but this last 8 months, and perhaps the next few are classic bear market rallies which are steep, fierce, and unsustainable. All of the gains we have seen are on the backs of an escalating national and public debt, and record low interest rates. What happens when interest rates reverse? WHat happens if the treasury and fed turn off or slow down the spigot? What happens if they don't? The answer to each of these is lower stock prices, lower bond prices, lower real estate prices, and higher commodity prices. I find it hard to believe that the greatest financial breakdown in the past century has been healed in less than two years, and we're off to the races. Especially considering that NOTHING has changed. THe fed continues its policies of printing more money, and forcing low interest rates, which is what they did in 1998, leading to the tech bubble, and in 2001 to 2003 leading to the bubbles in real estate and the financial markets. Each bubble is progressively larger. Each resce is more expensive. And now, with 2.5 trillion spent on the rescue and counting....what is next?

http://madhedgefundtrader.com/Today_s_Diary_Entry.php

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